Ukraine: A mere pawn in the US-Russian Wrangle?

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The current US-Russia confrontation over Ukraine that is being followed by everyone even slightly interested in politics- including me- stems from a deep geopolitical history that has been relevant for centuries. In an envisioned yet sudden move that has rattled the world,  the United States has recently threatened to invade Russia in response to the positioning of approximately 100,000 Russian soldiers on the borders of its neighbour, Ukraine. This building friction has the potential to once again divide the world in parts and drag it into deep crisis. 


Ukrainians demonstrate in front of the Communist Party’s Headquarters in 1991 (Source:                                                                       Kyiv Post) 


To give some background to the dispute, I will begin with the end of the Cold War in the late 20th Century. The disintegration of the Soviet Union under Mikhael Gorbachev in 1991 with the Ukrainian Independence Referendum spelled out the end of the union. It was this dissolution that led to the declaration of Ukraine as an independent state, free from the influence of the USSR. However, in the early 1990s, unsurprisingly various Russian leaders had begun to criticize the Ukrainian policies and further questioned the shift of Crimea to the newly independent Ukraine. It was in 2014 that Moscow took advantage of the political turmoil in Ukraine over the presidency and established military control over the often contended for Crimea. This illegal annexation was justified as a historical claim on the area by Vladmir Putin, the current President of the Russian Federation and also as an attempt to “help create conditions so that the residents of Crimea for the first time in history were able to peacefully express their free will regarding their own future” (“Address by President of the Russian Federation” 2014).


While Ukraine is not a part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, it has been in a partnership with the organization since 1992. The Ukraine-NATO Commission of 1997 helped establish a platform for discussion as well as security concerns between the various countries. Russia, however, has threatened Kiev directly if any attempt to join NATO is made, much to the dismay of the policy goals of Ukraine. It has also not shied from accusing the Americans of using Ukraine to contain Russia as a threat.


In the middle of all this, the United States has backed Ukraine up, promising to dispatch thousands of soldiers. Along with a thousand US soldiers being sent from Germany to Romania, President Joe Biden has flown over two thousand armed forces to Poland and Germany. The alarming conflict between Russia and the United States with Ukraine as a pawn can deescalate to a full blown war with allies of both the countries. 


The most efficient way of analyzing this issue and understanding the idea of who needs security, and from who, has been to follow Ole Wæver’s Securitisation theory that “works with a relatively small number of core concepts that are closely linked to each other.” (OpenLearn 2014) The idea of this theory lies along the lines of securitizing actors justifying using extraordinary means for the referent object against the threat object, with the necessary approval of the audience.


As defined by Mohommed Ayoob, “Security-insecurity is defined in relation to vulnerabilities- both internal and external- that threaten or have the potential to bring down or weaken state structures, both territorial and institutional, and governing regimes.” And the IR specialist hit right on the mark with this definition, looking at this particular issue.



The UN Security Council meets in January  (Source: CNBC)


To answer the arising questions of security, this military conflict between these superpowers could result in a war that threatens the entire world order. The UK and other NATO allies are already considering responding to the US' request to send in more soldiers in case of a sudden move by Russia in Ukraine. At the same time, we cannot avoid the likelihood of China jumping into the fray, considering its deteriorating relations with Washington. Zhang Jun, China’s UN ambassador has come out in support of Russia, claiming that the Western assertions of Moscow staging an incursion had no solid basis. The United Nations Security Council held a meeting to address the heightened tensions on 31st January 2022- and address it they did. The Under Secretary General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, Rosemary A. Dicarlo reiterated multiple times that any incursion by either party would be in direct violation of international law and the United Nations Charter. She also attempted to encourage actors “to refrain from provocative rhetoric and actions to maximise the chance for diplomacy to succeed”(Gilbertson 2022).


Another notable intervention that can be made is the probable mayhem Kiev will have to face, a danger to its sovereignty.  “No one is watching the current diplomatic efforts more than the people of Ukraine”, said Ms. DiCarlo, adding that they “have endured a conflict that has taken over 14,000 lives since 2014 and that tragically is still far from resolution.” The ongoing conflict has displaced over 1.5 million people in around 8 years along with a distressing amount of deaths and injuries.


It would not be a stretch to say that there is no single referent object here, nor a definite securitising actor that can solve the issue. For the Russians, America seems to be pounding its chest declaring war. The Americans see Russia as a threat to their own status as a superpower. The Ukrainians, however, seem to be backed into a corner with the short end of the stick. It could be the United Nations acting as a mediator, or even the involved states themselves showing restraint that could avoid an imminent war. History, post second world war, has shown us that the much globalised world is willing to cooperate and evade crises if possible.




References

“Address by President of the Russian Federation.” 2014. President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20603.

FP Staff. 2022. “Ukraine crisis: Understanding China's stand as US-Russia relation continues to detetrioarte.” Firstpost. https://www.firstpost.com/world/ukraine-crisis-understanding-chinas-stand-as-us-russia-relation-continues-to-deteriorate-10344051.html.

Gilbertson, Ashely. 2022. “'No alternative to diplomacy' in Ukraine crisis, Security Council hears.” UN News. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/01/1110912.

NDTV. 2022. “"Destructive Steps": Russia After US Sends 3000 Troops To Eastern Europe.” NDTV.com. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/us-deploys-3-000-troops-to-eastern-europe-amid-ukraine-crisis-russia-says-destructive-steps-2745957.

OpenLearn. 2014. “Securitisation theory - International Relations (3/7).” YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQ07tWOzE_c.

Rappaport, Helen, and Sean Gallup. 2022. “Will Russia Invade Ukraine? 9 Events In History That Explain The Crisis.” HistoryExtra. https://www.historyextra.com/period/general-history/russia-invade-ukraine-history-relationship-crimea-why-conflict-facts/.












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