Hybrid Warfare- New Threats and Entrants

Conventional strategies and practices of military and warfare, and all the implying rules and regulations attached thereto, do not fit well in the greatly evolving domain of cyber threats. Although the government's role in this realm is important, it still does not have firm control over it. The non-government affiliated agencies, groups and various other actors are taking the central role in the previously existing stages of the war. The changing dynamics of the referent with the changes in threat object makes the cyber realm a conundrum. It has apparently become hard to distinguish whether the role of a state is to protect individuals from cyber security threats arising from unidentified locations and unrecognized sources or to exploit and harm people. If the securitizing actor itself becomes the oppressor, then who else is going to protect individuals against it? The voices of individuals and certain sections of people would fill this gap. For instance, an unidentified hacker group called “Anonymous” has declared a cyberwar against Russia in response to Russian cyberattacks in Ukraine on its key agencies.

As reported by WION Web Team, the Russian space agency has been hacked by another group connected with ‘Anonymous’ preventing the Russian military to target more people and children as done earlier. This reflects upon individual groups acting against state forces to counter every form of cyberattacks. Since cyber warfare can be operated and demands a small area compared to any other traditional practices of warfare for instance direct military confrontations,

enables individuals and groups to take the front seat in providing security to remaining people. Thus, these new actors can be seen as security agents in two conditions: Firstly, when the state itself becomes an object of threat for the people by eroding their freedom and applying harsh methods such as panoptical surveillance and espionage through cybertechnology. Second, when a state finds it extremely difficult to protect its citizens from the targeted attacks (to critical infrastructure) of another country. The second condition can be seen in the ongoing Russia Ukraine war where initially the government of Ukraine requested the country's hacker groups to defend against Russian cyberattacks on critical infrastructures.

Palpably, even before any physical invasion, Russian government-sponsored hackers hacked into the networks of Ukraine. They targeted key agencies of Ukraine (law enforcement agency of Ukraine) before the start of the invasion. Invocation of Article 5 can be cited as a reason that could have pulled back Russia from getting indulged in a proper and full-fledged cyber war against Russia. The cyberattacks on critical infrastructures and essential projects of Ukraine could have worked as catalysts in provoking North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s mutual defense clause. The conventional warfare techniques that involved military to military conflicts or direct confrontation and physical conflict have been replaced by Hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare is not entirely a new concept since it has been traced in many previous wars (also mentioned in Kautilya’s Arthashastra). However, its use in the last few decades has increased manifold, involving coordinated attacks consisting of military, economic and political means. Espionage with the help of cyber domains and the use of information against other countries have also increased dramatically. 

The Russian President has reportedly reminded the US and West that Russia still holds a superiority in nuclear power. Undeniably, such claims and warnings have threatened countries of the Third World about atomic warfare. There are serious doubts and dilemmas while thinking about cities that would be attacked, the amount of damage it would cause to people and property. The simulation developed by Princeton University about the escalation of war between two major players Russia and the US suggests a total of more than 90 million human deaths at the beginning of the attacks itself. This shows the speed at which the destruction of the earth ultimately will happen mainly by several conflicts at the same time. Those simulations also suggested that the first nuclear attack would probably be carried out by Russia with hundreds of nuclear warheads. This severity will further be enhanced by the attacks from the US/NATO, with launches of around 600 warheads. The point here is that the number of people who would be killed is going to be historically much higher than any other. Such circumstances discussed above put the state's role in serious deliberations whether a state is a source of security or a source of threat to individuals. The role of individuals as the security provider in the cyber arena push aside gender differences by involving women and men unlike traditional security actors in terms of security forces.

References: -

1.    “'A Casus Belli': Amid Ukraine Crisis, Russia Space Agency Head Says Satellite Hacking Would Justify War.” MSN. Accessed February 23, 2022. www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/a-casus-belli-amid-ukraine-crisis-russia-space-agency-head-says-satellite-hacking-would-justify-war/ar-AAUxsND.

2.    Peterson, J., 2022. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?. (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/hackers-destroyed-data-at-key-ukraine-agency-before-invasion) [Accessed 23 February 2022].

3.    Schectman, Joel, and Christopher Bing. 2022. “EXCLUSIVE Ukraine Calls on Hacker Underground to Defend against Russia.” Reuters, February 24, 2022, sec. World. https://www.reuters.com/world/exclusive-ukraine-calls-hacker-underground-defend-against-russia-2022-02-24/.

4.    “Nuclear War Simulation Shows a War with Russia Would Leave the Northern Hemisphere ‘Toasted’ within Hours, If Not Minutes, with at Least 90 Million People Dead Soon after War Begins ‘a Strange Game, the Only Winning Move Is Not to Play.’” 2022. Be Ready. January 25, 2022. https://prayandbeready.wordpress.com/2022/01/25/nuclear-war-simulation-shows-a-war-with-russia-would-leave-the-northern-hemisphere-toasted-within-hours-if-not-minutes-with-at-least-90-million-people-dead-soon-after-war-begins-a-strange/.