A Liberal, Constructivist and Realist Analysis of China in the South China Sea Region

 The South China Sea (SCS) conflict is a particular situation where there are disputes between multiple stakeholder states, where often one piece of land is claimed by more than two states. This is, on the surface, a geopolitical tension within the confines of the SCS itself but the region itself is so strategically important that states from across continents are concerned about the future of this region. More importantly, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) ’s strategy in the area is an accurate example of their general approach in foreign policy over the last decade – characterised by diplomatic deterrence, exercise of its strong political hold over key institutions and the subjects of its power predominantly being significantly weaker states. We can thus see value in interpretation of this security issue though distinct theoretical lenses so as to note the crucial observances from each theoretical lens.

Realist theory posits that the international exists in a state of anarchy in which each state acts for its own self-preservation (physical survival). There is an objective rationality guiding the actions of these states, what classical realists would call the element of human nature. In the South China Sea conundrum, we see this come into play relative to the power that the states hold. For the littoral states, it can quite literally be seen as a tussle for control over what they claim to be their land. Being excluded from the region deprives them of crucial access to Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), which has huge implications for their national economy. Moreover, the Nine Dash Line would geographically suffocate these littoral countries, making them dependent on the dominant power (PRC) controlling the region. Conventionally, realism has understood a continuous struggle for power between these states and a state tends to gather arsenal and build an army to serve as a means to the end (power) which is known as the security dilemma. This is seen in the SCS in the form of the heavy militarization of the area enclosed by Nine Dash Line extending all the way till the Spratly and Paracel Islands. Cozette, however, would warn against seeing this power struggle through the lens of the military; to see the struggle for power purely in military terms would go against the critical foundations of realism that Morgenthau had written about. The realist project, she states, is to “critique the powers that-be”. To that end, the whole conflict essentially boils down to Chinese expansionism, using the sheer power imbalance to their interest.

Liberalism in IR sees actors as private groups that act in order to maximise utility. The state is seen as a subset of the domestic society and preferences of the state are influenced by this society that they represent. The Chinese state cannot be called a representative government, and perhaps a liberal perspective would see their belligerent foreign policy as a consequence of their authoritarianism. On an international level, states are interdependent. Their actions are thus also constrained by other states, and each action of the state would face cost implications whether in terms of loss trade partners or exclusion from strategic alliances. Liberal institutionalism states that states that have mutual interests can maximise their payoffs through alliances based on cooperation. The SCS is a clear example of the failure of institutions in protecting the interests of its member states. China to this day refuses to accept the judgement of the Permanent Court of Arbitration 2016 ruled in favour of the Philippines. The United States, among others, has been vocally against the Chinese presence in the region and has issued several statements to convey its dismay. Even so, the PRC remains undeterred in what a liberal scholar would term its pursuit of the regions with strategic and economic importance.  

The positivist approach in both the theories discussed above lie starkly in contrast to constructivism. They argue that agency and structures are mutually constituted. China has the agency to enforce its agenda in the SCS and in doing so, dismantles the structures that enforced order in the region. Constructivism also focuses on the role of state identity and sees foreign policy as a performance of that identity. These identities are socially constructed through interactions of the states with other players in the international. A powerful state such as China has a set of interests that include global domination and to create an economic dependence over weaker states, while the littoral states cannot possibly sustain such ambitions by virtue of their agencies. The Nine Dash Line itself is a crude construction that forms the basis of their policy. Intersubjectivities are a key concept of constructivist which manifest themselves quite peculiarly in case of land disputes. Essentially such disputes can be perceived as an incongruence and an inability to establish an intersubjectivity of the territory. While such a demarcation is geographically inefficient in communicating the exact extent of China’s territorial sovereignty, the meaning given to the Nine Dash Line will tell the future of the region.

The SCS dispute becomes an outlier that challenges many key theoretical assumptions made in IR. There is thus a need to further discourse and analysis to understand how to study such a complex situation. By adopting a strategy of studying this situation through the minimalist (and possibly reductionist) view of ‘China’ and ‘the littoral states’ this blog only touches the surface of a dispute that is highly complicated in itself. The power structures within the littoral states and their relative position in the international hierarchy guides their individual foreign policy and informs scholars of their independent interests with respect to their claims in the region. While this blog can provide a foundational analysis of the dispute, the task of theorizing this issue through the lens of each of the individual actors is truly mammoth.