Pakistan : in the labyrinth of Anarchy

By Anonymous -

 

Courtesy: Dawn.com

The crowd of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) supporters at the Islamabad rally on March 27 was already charged as they cheered with a shared sense of anticipation. Their leader, former  premier of the country, was  heading towards a certain defeat in the coming no-confidence motion. Imran Khan had already dubbed March 27 to be a “ decisive day” in country's history. He promised to stand till “last wicket”,  and so he did. In a moment of theatrical revelation, to the audience of his cheering supporters, he produced out of his pocket a piece of paper. This he claimed was a ‘letter’, evidence of an ‘American-sponsored conspiracy’ to oust his government. What followed was the familiar up roar of anti-Americanism cocktailed with nationalism and Islamic populism. This was not a sui generis moment in Pakistan’s politics but rather, came in as a part of decades-long history — a history not only of the volatile relations between the two countries, but how these sour relations have been leveraged within Pakistan for political mileage.

Apart from echoing the deep rooted disaffection towards America, Imran Khan in this rather elusive moment of political gymnastics, brought to front a particular apprehension of anarchy in the international arena. Anarchy remains the modus vivendi of international life. Any substantial project to theorise and elucidate the features of IR must confront and make sense of this condition. In this particular instance Imran Khan as the leader of a post-colonial state straight away blamed America for intervention in the Nation’s politics. He argued his government fell out of favour of American interests as he extended his support for Russian invasion. His immediate visit to Moscow and meeting with president Putin after the invasion helped build his narrative. He was effectively constructing an interpretation of anarchy in which Pakistan, vulnerable and drained by its corrupted elite ( military and political), was in fact  turned around on the dictates from America. This resonates with his earlier statement on the occasion of Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August of  2021 when he remarked “It is harder to throw off the chains of cultural enslavement. What is happening in Afghanistan now, they have broken the shackles of slavery”. To see in the take over by Taliban the end of American control suggests the conception of a particular notion of Anarchy: which apprehends it to be a kind of International Hierarchy. Wherein, states like Pakistan and Afghanistan are in a constant struggle with western hegemony. 

"Liberalism seeks to explain state preferences and policy as a function of societal context, and focuses on how domestic conflict, not international anarchy, imposes suboptimal outcomes. "

The political farrago that went into making of  this recent culmination in the politics of the nation runs through its most prominent institution- the Military.  Imran Khan’s government which took office in the year 2018 is widely understood to be a “ hybrid arrangement” between civil and military institutions of the country. Imran Khan government thus represented the consensus which promised to govern the nation defying its chequered history of civil-military conflict. To this end the military establishment brought about a coalition in the National assembly post election for PTI to head a government led by Imran Khan. His party had previously been active in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region of the country but lacked any significant support in Punjab or Sindh, two most prominent provinces of Pakistan, respectively. His support base even while in office, primarily drew from middle classes of the country- Same social category which have been the recruiting field for Pakistan’s army since the 1950's. This  made Imran Khan the perfect ally of the military establishment as opposed to PNL Nawaz [Pakistan Muslim League (N)] or PPP [ Pakistan Peoples Party]. Though, the coalition between the PTI and military came up to no substantial result. The economic prospects of the country went from dwindling to worse. The prospect of applying for yet another IMF bail out was almost certain by the second year of the government. Even as the political turmoil grew, the inflation rate was 12.7 per cent in March, up from 12.2 per cent in February 2022. These economic mishandlings in combination with Khan’s governments recalcitrance to make the shift in the post of DG ISI last November made the military remove its support and go “neutral”- thus the ultimate coming of the no-confidence motion. The deeply economic nature of the Pakistani military also compelled it to react to sharp decline in the country's misfortune. The social political dynamics of the Pakistani military demonstrates that the military uses its political influence for social and economic mobility of its own personnel. Being The Institution of Pakistan, the military could not let its economic fortunes dwindle as it will inevitably crumble the institution’s benefits. Thus this revulsion of Pakistan’s Foreign policy , its re-alignment with America, potential attempts at balancing the influence of China with the coming of new administration, and the ousting of the Imran government can be explained away with Classical Liberal theory. Since, Liberalism seeks to explain state preferences and policy as a function of societal context, and focuses on how domestic conflict, not international anarchy, imposes suboptimal outcomes. 

What just transpired in Pakistan is a massive readjustment. Though the result of it still remains a very fragile and open ended culmination. The Imran Khan government is replaced by a motley coalition with members from almost all of the major political parties with

disparate interests . The substantive challenge for it remains in the recommencement of the International Monetary Fund’s $6 billion bailout amid rising inflation, increasing food and energy prices, and the historic trade deficit of over $35 billion. In the realist calculus Pakistan is condemned to make finer adjustments in its Alliance configuration and thus must improve the ties with the west as most of the monetary help comes from those institutions. The existence of a Taliban regime on the northern border of the country does not provide any breathing space either. Anarchy as an absolute term is the only reality of Pakistan’s immediate neighbourhood. Any scope for ideological or constructivist notion of security cannot held sway as terrorism leaks into the county from radicalism in Afghanistan. Prospects of a period of long peace in the country while stay contingent on the performance of this rather fragile government headed by its new prime minister Shebaz Sharif. 

Citations

  1. Moravcsik, Andrew. 1997.“Taking Preferences Seriously: A Liberal Theory of International Politics.” International Organization 54 (4): 513-553.
  2. March 2022. "March 27 "decisive day" in counties history: PM Imran". Dawn.com. https://www.dawn.com/news/1681946/march-27-decisive-day-in-countrys-history-pm-imran
  3. Hussain, Zahid. 2022. "The Roots of the rage against America". Dawn.com https://www.dawn.com/news/1687728/the-roots-of-the-rage-against-america.
  4. Sameer, Patil. April 12 "With Imran Khan ousted, Pakistan Army will have a salient role in Islamabad" Observer Research Foundation. https://www.orfonline.org/research/with-imran-khan-ousted-pakistan-army-will-have-a-salient-role-in-islamabad/ 

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