Red Moon rising
The theoretical perspective of the rise of China
The US lead liberal world order has begun to lose its dominance owing to the rise of non-western powers, especially China. China is now the world’s second-largest economy, the richest nation in the world, and the third most powerful military (first in military personnel). In the 5G race China has established its technological dominance, the US is struggling to catch up.The evolving geopolitics has led to varied claims of what the world order would constitute from here on. These claims are backed by theories, these theories tend to look at the rise of China in the international sphere through different paradigms. Through my limited understanding of these theories, I aim to understand the Chinese rise through realism, liberalism, and constructivism.
For realism, and its proponents like Kenneth Waltz and Hans J. Morgenthau, human nature is selfish, and the international system is anarchic. The basic point of Realism is that states, as the central actor in world politics, tend to desire power to acquire security or dominance. Regardless of the logic of appropriateness, the means of power drive all the states' acts and that could lead to conflict. China's unparalleled economic boom has been accompanied by the world's largest military build-up, which has included massive increases in military investment and technological advancement. This would draw Realist assessments that China would transform the international order and gain global hegemony. The recurrent 'Chinese Dream' and the Belt and Road initiative would prove to be an example. Furthermore, China's military build-up has led to increased confidence in its military capabilities and assertiveness in its application. The Taiwan Anti-Secession Law is an example of the Chinese advances from the realist view.
The realists would further put forward that the rising US presence Asia- pacific is a response to the Chinese rise. The realist 'Thucydides Trap' appears to connect with the Asia-Pacific case. "It was the development of Athens and the anxiety that this engendered in Sparta that made war inevitable, " Thucydides writes. The dynamic of the trap is inherent when a quickly emerging power (China) gains confidence, a dominant power (US) fears losing its edge, and entangled alliances on both sides drive the parties to the war. "In 11 of 15 situations since 1500 in which a rising power competed with a dominant one, the consequence was war,". If John Mearsheimer's argument is correct, China will respond to the US build-up by forcing the US out of Asia, or the US would make military aggression to counter Chinese advancement.
Liberalists also vouch for an anarchic system of world politics but are optimistic that conflict can be avoided due to change in human nature for good. The core notion of liberalism is that states are more interested in absolute benefits for themselves and other states than in relative benefits. There are several ties and relationships between countries in which force or power becomes almost irrelevant as a tool for policy implementation. The focus here is thus on economic interdependence. The liberal perspective expects an open economy and participation in global economic concerns. China's entry into the WTO is the first step toward the country's integration into the global economy. The essential purpose of the liberal method is for governments to work together to maximize the benefits of the absolute, not relative, and transient. This hypothesis was perfectly applicable to China's arrival in Central Asia. China's partnership with five Central Asian republics is predicated on mutual economic gains, with raw resources from states replacing Chinese investments and technologies. States cooperate when they recognize that they have a common interest in the relationship and that it benefits them both.
One line of argument for optimism about the expected influence of China's developing capabilities was the relevance of increasing economic interdependence. The primary premise is that when the costs of using force are high and the rewards are minimal, governments should be encouraged to keep their international disputes under control. More importantly, increased economic interdependence has had a positive impact on China's relationship with the rest of the globe. On the one hand, China's current growth has become more reliant on the rest of the globe. China's rapid economic expansion, on the other hand, sparked growth and change across East Asia and around the world. According to liberal perspectives, China has evolved into an economic engine and a driver for regional integration.
The most fundamental position of constructivists is that social reality is not consistently given nor rationally predetermined. Constructivism emphasizes the social dimension of international relations: only by the interaction of agents can the international system be created, reproduced, and modified. On the same lines, as Alexander Wendt puts it, “Anarchy is what states make of it”. The constructivist approach demonstrates China's influence and role in East Asian regional integration and policy. China's significant economic and military prowess, according to constructivists, does not determine whether China constitutes a threat to East Asia. It is, rather, a question of perception. In other words, it is dependent on how other countries interpret China's actions. As China's economic power grows to become the next superpower, countries like Taiwan and Vietnam may see China as a real threat to their security. Others, such South Korea, may be pleased to discover another large market in China and utilize it to fuel their economic growth. They may also be pleased to discover a large new market in which to sell their products. Because constructivism focuses on how Norms shape State Identities, which shape state interactions, constructivists will believe that how each country perceives China as the new world power will be different: some may see China as a threat to their countries, while others may see it as a new opportunity.
From the standpoint of constructivism, conflict management is nothing more than a control group behavior of its members, seeing them as a social group in which the members' behavior regulates social laws. When it comes to China's engagement in international disputes, the Chinese government has voiced that it prefers the "peaceful ascent" approach, which avoids the use of armed force. In addition, the "Five principles of peaceful coexistence " program includes the principles of non-interference and good neighbor relations.
Bibliography:
Textor C. "China - Statistics & Facts" Statista.com, 28 April 2020.
"China to aid 5 Central Asia countries with additional 50 million vaccines, to continue 'high-level political mutual trust". Global Times, 26 January 2022.
"China and the world: Inside the dynamics of a changing relationship" Mckinsey Global Instiute,1 July 2019.
G. John Ikenberry, The end of liberal international order?, International Affairs, Volume 94, Issue 1, January 2018, Pages 7–23.
Sakshi, let me begin by saying that I was intrigued by the title you put up for your blog, 'Red Moon Rising'. It truly is fascinating and an excellent start to your analysis of China's rise in the global order. While understanding this phenomenon you clearly stated what the realists' perspective would highlight including China’s interests as a nation state to increase its dominance in and around the world through military and other methods. The liberalists, as rightly pointed out, would count on the rationality of the states (in this case, China) to avoid engaging in warfare and also international organizations (like the UN) to interfere in case conflicts do arise. And the constructivists would attempt to understand China’s actions itself and how they could be perceived by other states to answer security questions. Your blog was a well constructed one that answers several questions when it comes to the three IR theories.
ReplyDeleteMy question to you is, according to the prompt given to us for the blog, do you consider China’s rise an international security issue, and would you like to elaborate further on that?
-Pakhi
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